HOOOboy I’m at it again. Way late and none the worse for wear.
Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
What Will Win: The Artist. Fairly groundbreaking, entertaining, beautiful, and low-grossing, it’s tailor-made to be an Oscar favorite and no-brainer, without pandering to be one.
What Should Win: This post is not nearly as informed as I’d like it to be, having seen only four of the nine nominees in this category. I’ll just say that I loved The Artist, liked The Help as much as the next guy (but thought its main strength was its casting, not necessarily the whole picture), had no taste for Moneyball, and would love to live in a world where Midnight in Paris could feasibly win a Best Picture Oscar.
BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win: Toss up! Fairly sure Jean Dujardin will take home the [plated-] gold, but George Clooney is a strong challenger in a role I haven’t seen.
Who Should Win: Probably Dujardin. I was waaaaay to American to enjoy Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, so the comparatively (to the movie) great performance of Gary Oldman doesn’t compare to a great performance in a great movie (Dujardin). Is it an effect of my generation knowing Brad Pitt mainly as a tabloid fixture rather than an actor that I found his performance unimpressive?
BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Viola Davis will edge out Meryl Streep for the Award, and give a kickass, racially-charged speech.
Who Should Win: I mean, what do you want me to say? It’s such a crazy category this year, with Davis giving a truly stunning performance in her first leading film role (why it IS her first is beyond me) and Streep knocking out of the park as usual (I’ll say in in print: it’s neither impression nor impersonation, it transcends that) and deservedly carries 90% of any acclaim the really bad Iron Lady receives (the other 10% belongs to the makeup crew). I didn’t see Rooney Mara, but by all accounts it seems she is the only other actress worthy of this win, with both Michelle Williams and Glenn Close falling a bit short of expectations (if not in their films, then in the Oscar race itself).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer. He’s old! He deserves it! Etc!
Who Should Win: My knowledge limits me, but apparently Max von Sydow. I personally have a soft spot for effective non-spoken performances (hence my approval of Dujardin), so it would be a nice surprise for Sydow to upset. Beyond that, all I know is that putting Jonah Hill out of his crass-comedy element (if his normal brand of acting can be considered an “element” at all) does not a win-worthy performance make.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, deservedly, but my heart will indeed suffer (see below).
Who Should Win: I mean, Spencer really is incredible, and Janet McTeer is apparently better at the whole Nobbs thing than Close, but deep down I really just want to see Melissa McCarthy take it. With the addition of Berenice Bejo and Jessica Chastain, this may be the most talent packed (if not most contentious) and deserved acting category this year.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
What Will Win: Rango.
What Should Win: There’re no Pixar nominees (for a good reason, I’ll admit), so I don’t care.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
What Will Win: The Tree of Life.
What Should Win: Probably The Tree of Life. I imagine it was the toughest job of the five nominated, and, by many accounts, the best executed.
DIRECTION
What Will and Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist. Which isn’t to say playing “Where’s Terrence Malick?” hasn’t been one of the more fun games of the awards season.
By the way, A Separation (Iran) is winning best foreign feature, and Iron Lady’s makeup will take home a win too. Moving on…
MUSIC
What Will and Should Win: The score of The Artist by Ludovic Bource and “Man or Muppet” by Bret McKenzie from The Muppets.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What Will Win: The Descendants will bring a win to that cross-dressing dean from Community (yep, that’s a thing).
What Should Win: I couldn’t tell you, but I really was underwhelmed with Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Network follow-up, Moneyball.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What Will Win: Deservedly, Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris.
What Should Win: Though comparatively a major upset at the expense of Allen, I really really want to see Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo win for Bridesmaids.
In addition? Bridesmaids should have been a Best Picture contender; probably Girl with a Dragon Tattoo as well; Drive was maybe most-unrecognized, tragic edition; Shame was maybe most-unrecognized, for a good reason edition. I have faith in Billy Crystal; I’m wary of Sacha Baron Cohen.
Love and best dishes (for now),
CFXD, y’all.
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